Mortgage Origination ABM

Configuration

Adjust levers, then run the simulation.

Demand

Base arrival rate (apps/day)3.00

Shock multiplier3.00

Shock start (tick)80

Shock end (tick)160

Capacity

Loan officers8

Capacity per officer / day4

Stages to fund3

Carry-over capacity

Unused budget rolls forward.

Patience

Patience mean (days)30

Patience std8.00

Decay per friction0.08

Branch probabilities

P(request document)0.08

P(return for conditions)0.06

P(decline)0.05

Event cap (normalization)0.70

Compliance & docs

Compliance penalty active

Adds doc-request bonus + small capacity drag.

Doc-request penalty bonus0.10

Compliance slowdown0.12

Doc turnaround mean (days)4.00

Max doc requests3

Run

Number of ticks (days)320

Random seed

Key insights

Healthy
Funded 55.1% — within the 50–75% target band
802 of 1,455 applications funded.
Risk
Abandonment 26.7% — borrowers giving up
Peak queue hit 94. Patience runs out fastest when work piles up on the doc-loop.
Watch
Compliance penalty ON — rework 51.9% of UW cases
Doc-request bonus +0.10 drives 'cover-yourself' behaviour. 808 doc requests, 283 returns.
Note
Throughput 2.51 funded/day · avg dwell 8.4d
42.7% of cases touched the doc-loop at least once.
Watch
Highest rework segment: FICO <620 at 57.0%
142 cases. Targeted intake checks here would cut loops.

Funded rate

55.1%

802 of 1,455

Abandonment

26.7%

389 cases

Decline rate

16.9%

246 cases

Rework (cond.)

51.9%

1419 reached UW

Peak queue

cases

Throughput

2.51/day

funded loans / day

Avg dwell

8.4 d

funded cases

Doc-loop reach

42.7%

of all applications

Queue & WIP over time

Cumulative outcomes

Outcome funnel